Is the ‘Chinese dream’ ageing well? Demography and Labour Market  from the ‘Reforms’ to the ‘New Normal’ 

Abstract: Xi Jinping’s ideological blueprint, the “Chinese Dream”  (Zhongguo Meng, 中国梦), envisions restoring China’s historical interna tional stature by transforming it into a great power and economic pow erhouse. However, despite remarkable achievements accomplished by  the “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics”, several challenges remain in  the gap between the dream and reality. This chapter, by reconstructing  their historical evolution starting from the 1978 “Reform and Opening  Up” program, specifically explores the challenges posed by the current  constraints of China’s demographics and labour market. Although China  is no longer the world’s most populous country, its labour market remains  the largest, with 780 million workers accounting for 22.7% of the global  workforce in 2022. Social scientists from multiple disciplines have investi gated the role of labour in China’s economic rise, but the transformations  of the 2010s have been even more profound than those of the previous  30 years, resulting in unprecedented labour reallocation. This chapter ex amines key shifts in China’s labour market since the beginning of the re form era, with a focus on three main issues. First, it analyzes the demo graphic, spatial, and macro-sectoral employment drivers that created  China’s comparative advantage in labour costs during the first decades  of reform, while highlighting how this advantage has diminished faster  than anticipated. Second, it explores the urban-rural divide and its impact  on migrant workers’ flows, which have shaped domestic labour market dynamics. Finally, it looks at the gradual diversification of the enterprise  ownership regime, from collective-state ownership to a labour market  dominated by domestic private capital. The paper concludes that these  profound changes have been essential to China’s economic growth, but  the rapid demographic shifts, combined with a polarized tertiarization of  the labour market, threaten the realization of Xi’s “Chinese Dream” of  national rejuvenation. 

Keywords: Chinese Dream; Labour market; Demographic transition;  market reforms; Migrant workers.